The core question: should you sell your US shares now?
Markets have been volatile, yet they’re finishing the year on a stronger note than where they began. Across the world, different benchmarks tell a mixed story. The NZX50 has risen just under 5% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 14%, and the Nasdaq has advanced about 20%. Individual stocks have shown striking gains—NVIDIA, for example, up about 36%, while Rocket Lab has surged around 150%. Amid worries that an AI downturn could trigger a broader tech stock pullback, many investors are reconsidering their holdings.
To find a clear answer, RNZ consulted several market experts who emphasized that decisions should largely depend on your personal situation.
Mike Taylor, founder of Pie Funds, argues that you shouldn’t alter your long-term asset allocation simply because AI stocks had a strong year. Still, he notes that investors who are overly concentrated in AI or volatile names—perhaps holding Nvidia and Rocket Lab almost exclusively—might consider trimming some exposure. The idea is to reallocate into parts of the market that look undervalued. It’s also important to remember that local markets haven’t participated as robustly in the AI rally: the NZX is up about 3.5% year-to-date, and the ASX around 5%.
Rupert Carlyon, founder of Koura Wealth, recommends always assessing fair value. If you don’t see meaningful upside, it may be time to sell. If you believe a stock still offers value, you might buy more. He also cautions against excessive single-name exposure: if one stock has soared to represent a large share of your portfolio, it’s prudent to realise some profits and diversify. Regular portfolio reviews help ensure you aren’t overly exposed to a single name, reducing the risk of a large drawdown wiping out gains.
Dean Anderson, founder of Kernel, notes growth in interest for US-listed shares. Investors often gravitate toward well-known big-name companies and ETFs from major providers like Vanguard, while continuing to support New Zealand–focused names such as Rocket Lab. He doesn’t see a broad selling trend, though he warns about potential capital gains tax implications if positions are sold. The prevailing mindset remains “buy the dip” and think long term: volumes haven’t slowed, and purchase choices haven’t shifted dramatically. Some observers are spotlighting Berkshire Hathaway in conversations—seen as a contrarian, value-oriented option with substantial cash reserves.
There’s even a subtle shift in sentiment toward reducing AI-growth exposure in favor of traditional, value-oriented strategies, echoing the Warren Buffett approach of holding cash and waiting for the right opportunities.
Bottom line: the decision to sell should hinge on your risk tolerance, diversification, and outlook for fair value, rather than on the AI hype alone. If you’re concentrated in a few high-flyers, consider trimming and rebalancing. If you’re comfortable with your long-term thesis and have a well-diversified mix, sticking to your plan may be the smarter path.
What’s your take: do you think this is the moment to de-risk and rebalance, or do you prefer sticking with a long-term growth posture despite ongoing headlines? Share your view in the comments.
