The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently experiencing a delicate balance, hovering near its highest levels amid a mix of business activity data. While the Euro has shown moderate losses, trading close to 1.1740 as of Friday, it has managed to retain most of its gains from the previous day, setting the stage for its strongest weekly performance since June. However, the Eurozone's flash PMI data has not provided the expected boost to the Euro, leaving the currency pair near multi-week highs.
The primary driver of this situation is US President Trump's ongoing fixation with Greenland, which continues to exert significant pressure on the US Dollar. Trump's recent statements on social media, claiming to have secured Greenland through a deal with NATO, have further fueled tensions. This development follows his speech at the Davos World Economic Forum, where he softened his stance on military action against NATO allies and withdrew tariff threats against the Eurozone countries.
On the macroeconomic front, the US economy is showing signs of resilience. The Q3 GDP figures exceeded expectations on Thursday, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims rising less than anticipated. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index revealed higher inflationary pressures in November, supporting the Federal Reserve's view of steady interest rates. However, these positive economic indicators seem to have taken a backseat to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the market's focus firmly on the US-EU relationship.
Euro Price Today:
The Euro has demonstrated its strength against various major currencies today. The table below provides a snapshot of the percentage changes:
| Currency | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USD | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.32% | -0.01% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.07% |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.37% | -0.07% | -0.19% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.12% | -0.23% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.14% | 0.14% |
| JPY | 0.32% | 0.37% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.19% | 0.37% | 0.39% |
| CAD | 0.01% | 0.07% | -0.06% | -0.32% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.08% |
| AUD | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.07% | -0.19% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.22% |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.37% | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.00% |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.39% | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.00% |
The heat map offers a visual representation of these changes, with the base currency on the left and the quote currency on the top. For instance, the percentage change for EUR/USD can be found by following the horizontal line from Euro to US Dollar.
Daily Digest Market Movers:
- US-EU Tensions: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been languishing near three-week lows as tensions between the US and the EU, its primary trading partner, escalate over the Greenland issue. This deterioration in relations has eroded confidence in the US' global leadership and the status of the US Dollar as a reserve currency.
- Market Sentiment: Trump's recent shift in tone towards the European Union has improved market sentiment, allowing for a relief rally. However, the damage to transatlantic relations is severe, and the US Dollar is bearing the brunt of it, at least in the short term.
- Eurozone PMIs: The flash PMIs revealed that the Services sector maintained its expansion at a 51.6 pace in January, unchanged from December, meeting market expectations. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 from 48.8 in December, but still remained below the crucial 50-level, indicating contraction.
- German PMIs: Released earlier on Friday, German PMIs exceeded expectations. The services sector's activity improved to 53.3 from 52.7 in the previous month, surpassing market expectations of a milder increase. The Manufacturing PMI also rose to 48.7 from 47.0, but remained in contraction territory.
- US Macroeconomic Data: On Thursday, US macroeconomic data provided support to the US Dollar. The Q3 GDP was revised upwards to 4.4% annualized growth, surpassing the previous estimate of 4.3% and the Q2 growth of 3.8%.
- PCE Price Index: The US PCE Price Index accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% previously, as widely anticipated. The core PCE Price Index mirrored this performance.
- Initial Jobless Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200K in the week of January 17, from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 199K, but still well below the market's anticipation of 212K.
- S&P Global Services PMI: In the US, the preliminary Services PMI is expected to tick up to 52.8 in January from 52.5 in December.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD is retreating from key resistance levels near the 1.1765 area. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart suggest a potential reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 60, approaching the neutral zone, indicating a potential loss of upward momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is contracting, further highlighting a weakening upside momentum.
On the downside, intraday lows are currently at the 1.1725 area, with no clear support ahead of Thursday's low at 1.1670. Should the EUR/USD pair break above the 1.1765 resistance level (January 2 and 20 highs), the next target could be the December 24 high at 1.1808.
Economic Indicator:
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator of business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. This index is derived from surveys of senior executives in the private-sector manufacturing companies. The responses reflect changes in the current month compared to the previous one and can anticipate trends in official data series such as GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation.
The PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 indicating no change from the previous month. A reading above 50 suggests an expanding manufacturing economy, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Conversely, a reading below 50 signals a decline in activity among goods producers, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
For more detailed information, please refer to the following sources: FXStreet Economic Calendar and S&P Global.
Last Release:
- Date: Fri Jan 23, 2026
- Time: 09:00 (Preliminary)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 49.4
Consensus: 49
Previous: 48.8
Source: S&P Global
And this is the part most people miss: the impact of geopolitical tensions on currency markets. With the US-EU relationship under strain, the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency is being questioned. What does this mean for the future of global finance? And how will this impact your investments? These are questions worth pondering.
What are your thoughts on the matter? Do you think the US Dollar's dominance is at risk? Share your insights in the comments below!
